NASA Panel Pegs Starship Launches for Lunar Lander at 22

NASA's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, a group convened to advise the space agency on safety matters, has issued a new estimate for a key figure in its lunar landing plans. Speaking during the panel's quarterly meeting on Thursday, panel member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, indicated that 22 Starship launches would be required to fuel a single lander for a trip to the Moon. This figure represents a significant increase from previous, vaguer assessments and could impact the timeline for returning humans to the lunar surface.

The number in question refers to the specific flight architecture for the Human Landing System, the vehicle that will carry astronauts from lunar orbit to the surface and back. The plan involves using SpaceX's Starship as a propellant depot in low-Earth orbit. To fuel this depot with the liquid oxygen and methane needed for a lunar mission, a series of tanker Starships must be launched and transfer propellant to it. The total count of 22 would encompass the launch of the depot itself and the subsequent tanker flights required to fill it.

For years, NASA has been reluctant to provide a firm number for these tanker missions, as the figure has been a moving target. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, then-director of NASA's Human Landing System program, declined to give a precise figure, stating, “We have a general idea, but I’m reluctant to say exactly what that is.” She later suggested the number would be in the “high single digits to the low double digits,” while other officials have cited figures in the “high teens.” The latest estimate of 22 sits at the upper end of these previous ranges.

The persistent uncertainty and the rising estimates have drawn scrutiny. The potential for a high number of launches has long been a point of discussion, with some previous estimates suggesting around a dozen missions would be necessary. Such a flight rate would require SpaceX to launch a depot Starship, followed by numerous tanker Starships to fully load it with propellant for its journey beyond Earth orbit.

The current projection is generating concern among some NASA officials regarding the feasibility of the established schedule. The agency's stated goal is to return humans to the Moon as part of the Artemis program before the end of the decade. The central issue is whether SpaceX can achieve the required launch cadence and improve Starship's capabilities quickly enough to meet this objective.

A core element of the original plan was the expectation that Starship's lift capacity would be dramatically improved over time. Such an enhancement would increase the amount of propellant each tanker could deliver, thereby reducing the total number of flights needed. The new, higher estimate suggests that these anticipated performance gains may not be materializing, or at least not at a pace that would allow Starship to play a meaningful role in returning astronauts to the Moon within the current timeframe.

The role of Starship in the Artemis program has been a subject of ongoing discussion. This latest figure from a safety panel introduces a significant variable into the program's planning. The potential for a high number of launches creates significant logistical and safety questions for NASA as it prepares for its first crewed lunar landing in more than half a century.

The source material does not provide a response from SpaceX regarding the 22-launch estimate. Furthermore, it remains unclear whether this number reflects a change in mission design or a projection of the rocket's current performance capabilities. The figure is presented as a risk associated with the Artemis program, but the document does not specify if this estimate would impact any specific mission date. The question of whether this number could be reduced through future changes to the vehicle remains open.